Posted
on Mon Nov 23, 2009
Last updated
Apr 6, 2010
The ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Team released their official 2009-2010 Winter Weather Forecast today, saying mid-Missouri can expect slightly cooler than average temperatures this over the next several months.
In a half-hour special to air on ABC 17 tonight at 6:30pm, Chief Meteorologist Sharon Ray announced that the team is predicting the warm waters in the Pacific Ocean, known as El Nino, will largely influence this season's weather. "We expect the El Nino pattern to weaken through the winter, which will allow the polar jet stream to play more of a part in our winter weather," says Ray.
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According to Ray, "Although moist, mild air will continue to move in off the Pacific, occasionally, the polar jetstream will dive south across the northern plains, sending quick hits of very cold air into mid-Missouri." Overall, the team says mid-Missouri can expect slightly below average temperatures this winter, with the coldest air just to the east in the Ohio valley.
Meteorologist Jeff Huffman says we should expect a few modest snow storms here in Missouri, but we should be in the clear as far as significant ice. "Most of the ice storms this season will will be found across the mid-Mississippi Tennessee valleys," says Huffman.
The ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Team expects noticeably more snow in mid-Missouri than last year, but still below-average amounts. They predict 16 to 20 inches of snow for the entire season. The 30-year running average is near 20 inches for the season, which officially starts December 1st and ends March 1st.
Month-by-month, the team expects December to start off very cold and rather active. The best chance for measurable snow is during the first two weeks of the month, with a possible icing event during the third week of December. Even though it is possible we will be building a decent snow pack through the mid-month, temperatures are expected to warm up toward the end of the month, but possibly not in time to prevent a white Christmas.
In January, the Stormtrack Team expects colder than normal temperatures. However, the weather should stay fairly dry through the entire month, with little snow. "A few dustings of snow will be possible as cold fronts quickly move through the region," says Ray.
As February rolls around, the team expects cold air to stick around for the start of the month. They predict the weather will become active again by mid-month, with a winter storm bringing measurable snow to the area. But, they say, winter should come to an end rather early. "We expect a dramatic warm-up near the end of February, that will lead to stormy weather and possible severe storms," says Ray.
Overall, temperatures and precipitation may end up close to normal. However, getting to those "normal" totals will not be easy. Extreme cold in the middle of the season will likely be offset by a few warm periods in late December and February. The forecast snowfall amounts of 16 to 20 inches will likely be the result of a few moderate storms, but any one storm can greatly affect those totals.
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An update to this forecast will be posted on-line by the end of the year to bring you the latest on any changes in the overall weather pattern that may affect Mid-Missourians.
