The start of this week brings a very active weather pattern giving us the chance for heavy rain accumulation, the potential for flooding, and strong to even severe thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms will persist through Tuesday afternoon and will be efficient rain makers. On Monday the bulk of the heaviest rain will hang north of I-70, however that will switch into Monday night.
Monday afternoon and evening there is a severe threat in play. This is the lowest of the threats, but with a marginal risk present, we could see isolated severe thunderstorms containing large hail and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This risk is for our southwestern counties, extending just south of Jefferson City down to the Lake of the Ozarks.
Tonight rain showers and thunderstorms will continue through mid-Missouri, however the axis of heaviest rainfall will shift to the south. Heavy downpours this evening look to set up along the I-44 corridor. The showers and thunderstorms could "train", meaning they will produce heavy downpours that will hang overhead of one area for a long amount of time. This will cause for heavy rainfall accumulation to the southeast.
Luckily, late Tuesday we will see drying conditions by the evening. However, once this multi-day rain event is all said and done, rainfall totals will be in excess of 3" close to I-44. Columbia and Jefferson City will likely see anywhere from 1" - 2".
With heavy rainfall expected to the southeast there is a Aerial Flood Watch in effect from 7 PM Monday until 7 PM Tuesday. Localized areas receiving up to 4" will give way to potential flooding. Low lying areas, as well as streams or creeks, are most likely to see flooding conditions. To stay safe under these conditions make sure you check back with the ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Team for updated forecasts. And as always, remember, turn around don't drown.
Not all of the impacts of the heavy rainfall within the next two days will be bad. Rainfall is still needed across a good portion of mid-Missouri. With abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions still in place across parts of the state, rainfall will be well received.