This weekend provides the next shot at winter weather across all of mid-Missouri. With a cold front dropping through by late Friday temperatures will drop below freezing. As the cold air filters in across the area it will run into some low level moisture, providing the first initial shot at winter weather for the weekend. Freezing drizzle could start as early as Friday night from 9 PM to 12 AM. At this time, areas could start to see a slight glaze of ice, but more impacts could be on the way by Saturday.
Moisture will continue to advect into mid-Mo, giving us an increasing chance for snow and freezing rain late in the day Saturday. Greatest freezing rain and snow rates will increase overnight. Snow looks more likely north of I-70, whereas freezing rain will set up south of I-70. The big question in play with this system will be where the band of moderate snowfall will set up. The location of this heavier snowfall will greatly determine how much accumulation we will see here in mid-Missouri. Being 24+ hours out still makes this location hard to determine, providing for another tricky forecast.
As of Thursday at 12 PM, latest data indicates most snowfall will be located along and north of I-70. The heaviest snowfall looks like a narrow swath draped from the Missouri Iowa border down to Macon and west to Brunswick. The track of this heavier snowfall WILL change. If the line between freezing rain and snow changes by just a little bit, it could have major difference in impacts to this weekend. Columbia looks to right in the battle zone, coming close to the changeover.
Total snowfall accumulation is shown above. Higher totals will be located to the north with minimal accumulation as you head further south towards I-44. Since the heaviest band of snow looks to be a narrow swath we will likely see big snowfall differences in a short distance. This WILL be updated as we get closer to the event. Depending on the track of the heavier bands of snow, accumulation could go up or down.
Even if the track of this weather changes by as little 50 miles, you could be experiencing a completely different weather event. This is why this forecast is subject to change as we get closer to this event. It is important to check back with the ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather team through the next 48+ hours for the latest updates. LAST UPDATED: Friday, February 9th at 8:00 AM.