After warming through Wednesday, arctic air returns Thursday and temperatures will stay below freezing to end the work week. At the same time, southwesterly winds aloft will send in a warmer layer of above freezing air which will override the shallow, arctic air at the surface.
Moisture is forecast to lift north into southern Missouri Friday morning, spreading north through the day. At this time it looks like it will be mainly sleet or freezing rain since there will be a warm layer of air between four and nine thousand feet, causing snow to melt but re-freeze as it falls into the shallow layer of arctic air closer to the surface.
This will cause ice to accumulate Friday into Saturday morning as temperatures are forecast to stay below freezing in all of Mid-Missouri. Forecast models diverge on temperatures for Saturday, some showing warmer air at the surface moving in which is still questionable. If this happens, most of our precipitation Saturday into Sunday would be rain. However, with arctic air in place through early Saturday, ice is likely. It's possible that a wintry mix could continue through Sunday morning if the warmer air is slow to move in which is the favored solution at this time.
The storm system is still off the Pacific coast and the forecast could change by Friday. Considering there is the potential for a moderate to high impact ice event, it's something you'll want to pay attention to and look for updates to the forecast through the week here, on our ABC17 News Facebook page and on-air during ABC17 News.