The weather pattern is looking more like spring the next couple weeks as we head through March. Not only does this mean occasional warm days but it also points to periods of rain and t-storms. With increasing daylight and a higher sun angle, temperatures will continue to rise and we'll see a battle zone between warm and cold air develop as storm systems move across the area.
Below is a look at the upper level wind pattern and jet stream this week, which looks like it will continue for at least the first half of March. This wavy pattern, coming off the Pacific, is an unsettled weather pattern producing frequent temperature changes and rain chances. As upper level waves travel to the east, warm, moist air is carried in from the south while colder air is drawn in from the north along surface frontal boundaries. This often produces thunderstorms, some which can be severe, depending on where the highest wind shear and instability end up.
A cold front will swing through Mid-Missouri on the 28th bringing showers and t-storms, followed by brief cooling on March 1st. This pattern repeats itself with storm systems possibly around March 4th-5th, 10th-11th and again around the middle of the month. While it's too early to tell if severe weather will threaten Mid-Missouri with these systems, we'll need to watch closely for that potential and we will keep you updated here and on ABC 17 News.
Severe storm season begins in March, peaking in May then slowly winding down through the summer. Although we can have severe storms any month of the year in Mid-Missouri, on average, May is the month with the most tornadoes. However, last year we started the season early with a severe storm outbreak on March 6th which produced 7 confirmed tornadoes which fortunately, were fairly weak. You can read about it here.