Don't put away those summer clothes just yet, because the heat is returning to Mid-Missouri. While we got a nice taste of fall this past week, the seasons are gearing up for a flip-flop. As of late, we've been enjoying pleasant afternoons with temperatures in the low to mid 70s, which is fairly seasonable for this time of year. The nice taste of fall followed what has been a relatively warm September, with the month closing nearly four degrees above average.
As we flip the page to October, we are also going to switch back to summer in terms of weather. Weather models have been pretty consistent in developing a very impressive ridge across the eastern half of the nation. It's likely to be one of the strongest heat domes to develop this late in the year and will scorch many records across the nation.
To fully understand how a heat dome forms, you have to look at the atmosphere in the vertical sense. Nearly 20,000 feet above the surface of the earth, a large area of high pressure will move into the region. It's this area of high pressure where sinking air will be found. As the air sinks, it becomes compressed and heats up -- hence the term heat dome -- and the heat will certainly be felt in the coming days.
Temperatures as we head into a new week will be almost 15 degrees above average, with many locations flirting with 90 degrees. Thankfully, no records will be in jeopardy, as our record highs for the first few days of October is the mid-90s. Make no mistake, though, that temperatures will still be a bit toasty by October standards.
Both Monday and Tuesday, as the area of high pressure settles in aloft, we'll see temperatures climb into the mid and upper 80s. Heat indices won't be too terrible, as moisture in the atmosphere won't replenish in enough time to make it as humid as it's been lately.
Just as soon as the heat builds into the nation, we will quickly see the heat come to an end, at least for us here in Mid-Missouri. A digging trough and an associated cold front will track through the region and will bring beneficial rain to Mid-Missouri, in addition to lowering temperatures back to the 70s.
It's likely that the tug of war in the seasons will continue as we head through the rest of October, with models hinting at the above-average pattern staying with us through the month. Mid-Missouri's first frost usually falls near the end of October and with trends staying the way they are, we might not see our first frost until well into November.
For the latest on the warming temperatures and rain heading to Mid-Missouri stay, tuned ABC 17 News and follow us on Twitter at @ABC17Stormtrack.