TONIGHT: Most areas will stay dry. The Lake of the Ozarks could see a brief period of rain this evening, otherwise expect clouds to increase overnight with near average temperatures for July 1, in the mid 60s.
SATURDAY:Widespread rainfall is expected through most of the day on Saturday. Counties east of US 63 will begin to see rain showers by sunrise. Those showers will track slowly to the east and impact all of Mid-Missouri by the afternoon hours. Heavy rain is possible through the day with periods of thunderstorms. 1-2" of rain is possible by the end of the day. Slim bit of good news in that it's likely we see a break in the rain from about late afternoon to early evening from west to east. This will give a brief window of time to see any fireworks display. Highs are tricky in that they'll range from the mid 60s to the mid 70s depending on location. The further south you are from I-70, the drier you will be through the weekend.
EXTENDED: The heaviest of the rainfall will arrive Saturday night into Sunday. This is where training of showers and storms are expected to occur, and where the heaviest amounts of rainfall can be expected. It's looking likely that the rainfall begins to taper off beginning Sunday evening and lasting into Monday. Flash Flood Watches are in effect for all of Mid-Missouri beginning either tonight/Saturday morning and lasting through Monday. The expected rainfall will be very beneficial to the region and it's possible we could see 2" to 4"along I-70, and heavier amounts of 4" to 6" closer to HWY 24. Local amounts of 6+" isn't ruled out for areas north of I-70. This system also appears to have slowed down from what previous models runs have indicated. This would lead to a better chance for storms through noon on the 4th of July. There is also a Marginal Threat for severe weather Saturday and Sunday where an ample amount of shear could produce a few strong storms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. We'll need some sunshine for stronger storms to get going, but the main risk this weekend will be flooding. Missouri Rivers will need to be watched this weekend, as low water crossings will likely rise and areas particularly along the Blackwater River at Blue Lick, the Missouri River at Glasgow, Waverly, and Miami, as well as the Chariton and Grand Rivers are likely to rise. For additional weather updates follow @ABC17stormtrack on Twitter.