A strong cold front will be tracking through Mid-Missouri Monday night and will bring with it the threat for damaging winds, large hail, and the potential for flash flooding. There is a marginal risk for severe storms for most of Mid-Missouri. A few storms are possible in the late-afternoon to early evening hours with the best chance north of I-70. However, most will hold off until the overnight hours as a cold front moves through.
Ahead of the cold front, moisture has been increasing as dew points Monday afternoon were in the mid to upper 70s. This moisture will interact with the cold front and bring the potential for thunderstorms that will be efficient rain makers.
Right now parts of Mid-Missouri are under a Flash Flood Watch that goes into effect Monday at 10 PM. Those counties included are Chariton, Pettis, and Saline counties. It is highly possible we'll see more counties added. Current thinking is that the heaviest rain will occur for areas along and west of Hwy 63.
As the line tracks from the northwest to the southeast it will weaken, but the threat for heavy rain will still exist. The greatest threat for severe weather will exist as the line pushes into Mid-Missouri around midnight. Beyond that, the heavy rain and outflow from the storms should lower our severe threat immensely. Forecast models are hinting at pockets of Mid-Missouri seeing up to 2 inches of rain through the night, which is where the greatest threat for flash flooding exists.
Stay with ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather as we continue to break down the timing and threats for the storms and follow us on Twitter @ABC17Stormtrack.